A new national poll released by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind shows that Democrat Hillary Clinton is currently leading her rival, Donald Trump, by 10 points. Clinton’s lead is outside the poll’s margin of error of four percentage points.
The poll shows that 50 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Clinton and 40 percent support Trump. In a four-way race, both candidates suffer a four-point loss with Clinton falling to 46 percent and Trump falling to 36 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned 11 percent of the vote and Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered three percent.
The demographical breakdown doesn’t hold any surprises at this point. Trump still leads with white voters 47 percent to 42 percent, but loses in all other demographics. Black voters favor Clinton 92 percent to 7 percent. Hispanic voters also heavily favor the former Secretary of State preferring her by a margin of 70 percent to 21 percent.
In terms of gender, Trump leads with male voters, earning 49 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 42 percent. However, Clinton’s lead among women is stronger than Trump’s lead among men with the former First Lady beating Trump 56 percent to 32 percent.
Trump once boasted that he “loves the poorly educated,” but this poll shows that they might be starting to love him a bit less. Forty-nine percent of voters with only a high school education or less said they favored Clinton compared to the 46 percent that favored Trump. Those with at least a Bachelor’s degree support the former Secretary of State by an even wider margin, breaking for Clinton 56 percent to 33 percent. The only educational demographic that favors Trump are those who attended college, but did not graduate. That group favored Trump 43 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent.
One area that does contain some surprises is the questions regarding the Vice-Presidential candidates. The poll shows that if the tickets were reversed Democrat Tim Kaine would defeat Republican Mike Pence by eight points. The Virginia senator earned 49 percent of the vote compared to Pence’s 41 percent.
Pence would actually fare better against Kaine’s running mate, with the Indiana governor earning 46 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 47 percent. Pence might be holding his own against the Democratic candidate, but, based on this poll, Kaine would dominate Trump. Among those surveyed, 55 percent of voters said they would vote for Kaine over the 39 percent that would vote for Trump.
It’s likely that the strong support for the VP candidates has more to do with the weaknesses of their running mates than their own strengths. Both are relativity unknown, compared to Clinton and Trump. The GOP nominee is suffering due to his recent attacks on a former Miss Universe and the partial release of his 1995 tax returns.
Clinton, on the other hand, has avoided any major missteps, but her use of a private email server has caused voters to view her as untrustworthy. Furthermore, Clinton’s decades of public service certainly helps make the case for her experience, but it has also given her opponents plenty of time to dig up dirt on her.
This poll was conducted via landline and cellphone survey calls between September 28th and October 2nd and consisted of a sample size of 862 registered voters.